The field vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom may lack star power, but the contest has delivered no shortage of plot twists. After waiting in vain for a heavyweight candidate like former Vice President Kamala Harris or Sen. Alex Padilla, Democratic leaders began to panic over a nightmare scenario: so many Democrats splitting the vote that both leading Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could advance from the top-two primary on June 2. That outcome would raise the once-unthinkable prospect of a GOP governor in deep-blue California.
Then the race swerved again. Many Democrats had started lining up behind then-Rep. Eric Swalwell, a virtual unknown to Sacramento politics, before his campaign and political career imploded last month amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Suddenly, former Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra surged to the front of the Democratic pack after languishing in polls and fundraising. He is now locked in an intense face-off with Tom Steyer, a billionaire running as a progressive populist who has poured some $200 million of his own fortune into the bid.
To make sense of it all, we convened a panel of California-based political reporters who have been breaking news and uncovering shifting dynamics in the race for many months. Melanie Mason, Jeremy B. White, Dustin Gardiner and Blake Jones talked through what surprised them the most, what to watch on Tuesday, and the latest possibility Sacramento is gaming out: two Democrats advancing to the general election. Anyone who thought they understood the shape of this race a year ago was proven wrong. Kamala Harris and Alex Padilla stayed out, Katie Porter stumbled after some unflattering videos surfaced, and Eric Swalwell left the race following allegations of sexual assault and misconduct.
What Has Been the Biggest Surprise?
Jeremy White pointed to the speed of Becerra’s rise. “I’ll go with how quickly Xavier Becerra moved into the frontrunner position after Eric Swalwell dropped out,” White said. He noted that it usually takes time for Sacramento consensus to translate into voter behavior, but in this case it happened almost immediately and without Becerra spending much money. Dustin Gardiner agreed, observing that the shift was both rapid and unexpected given Becerra’s earlier struggles to gain traction.
The panel also discussed the fragility of the Democratic coalition. With multiple candidates splitting the vote, the possibility of two Republicans advancing has forced party strategists to reconsider their assumptions. The race now appears to hinge on turnout dynamics and late-breaking decisions by undecided voters. As the primary approaches, Sacramento insiders are gaming out a scenario that seemed far-fetched just months ago: two Democrats advancing to the general election, a result that would reshape the contours of the fall campaign.
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. The candidates, the surprises and the paths to victory remain in flux, leaving voters and analysts alike to wonder what the next plot twist will bring.
