Last month, Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu followed him out the door, leaving the state’s Republican caucus without its two most powerful figures ahead of a critical election.

The departures in Madison are part of a broader exodus. Over the past 14 months, more than a dozen Republican leaders in state legislatures from North Carolina to Iowa have resigned or announced their retirements. This wave of exits, which outpaces Democratic departures by roughly two to one, is viewed by strategists in both parties as a potential indicator of the political climate heading into November.

While individual reasons vary, the collective retreat suggests the challenges for the GOP extend beyond Congress. The party is contending with President Donald Trump’s declining poll numbers, attributed to higher gas prices and foreign policy concerns, which could depress Republican turnout. Some veteran operatives see parallels to the 2018 midterms, when Democrats flipped six legislative chambers and gained over 300 seats nationwide.

“I think he puts Republicans on the defensive with his actions,” said Dick Wadhams, a former Colorado state GOP chair. “They can’t stand it anymore.” Other party officials reject the idea that Trump is a liability, arguing the leadership turnover does not necessarily forecast deep electoral trouble. “If the election were next week, I’d be bothered,” said Wisconsin GOP Chair Brian Schimming. “The election is not next week.”

Narrow Margins and National Implications

Schimming conceded, however, that the retirements make holding the party’s razor-thin majority in the Wisconsin Senate more difficult. The state has become a top battleground, with Democrats hoping a handful of GOP openings will allow them to flip one or both legislative chambers for the first time in over a decade.

The loss of experienced lawmakers also represents a longer-term shift in state-level politics, stripping the party of a potential farm team for future national leaders. The trend mirrors a similar flight from Congress, where 36 Republican House members and seven GOP senators are not seeking reelection, compared to fewer Democrats.

For Democrats, the goal is to continue reversing the Republican dominance in statehouses that began with the 2010 wave election. That year, the GOP flipped 22 chambers, enabling a decade of conservative policy on voting and abortion, as well as advantageous redistricting.

Since the 2018 midterms, Democrats have been slowly chipping away at that advantage. The current wave of Republican retirements presents what they see as a pivotal opportunity to accelerate that process and alter the balance of power in state capitals before the next presidential election.